Two major events cannot be missed in 2018 are midterm elections and simmering global trade tensions, as suggested by chief investment officer at People’s United Advisors John Traynor.
“We think the earnings growth is very strong, we think the economy is very strong, but you’re being buffeted by those two trends, and they will impact the second half of the year,” Traynor said.
1. Midterm Elections
Given the upcoming November midterm elections, Traynor said, “You’re going to see a lot of market volatility and turmoil.”
2. Trade Tensions
Seriously, Traynor said global trade tensions could actually slow down the economy.
“The more the trade tensions roil the global markets and stay in the headlines, the more we’re worried it will have a negative impact on business and consumer confidence,” he said.
That’s because large-cap stocks tend to be more internationally exposed, while small caps are more focused on the domestic U.S. economy. A rebound of large-cap stocks could happen if trade rhetoric begins to soften. However, with the current situation, Traynor said the trade tensions will remain around a little while longer.